About & method
A nonpartisan research compilation for Hillsborough County ballot style 40300 (precinct 403), general election Nov. 3, 2026.
Snapshot
Research as of Oct. 24, 2026. Nothing here updates itself; money and poll figures carry their own as-of dates in their tooltips.
Early voting Oct. 19, 2026 through Nov. 1, 2026. Election Day Nov. 3, 2026. Check your own ballot and polling place at votehillsborough.gov.
Five layers
Every piece of content carries one of five labels. Lens, editorial and endorsement content is never shown as fact.
- Fact
- Filings, votes, polls and records.
- Editorial
- Newspaper opinion.
- Endorsement
- A group's own position.
- Lens
- Progressive or right-leaning aggregation notes.
- Definition
- Glossary definitions.
Two lenses
The progressive and right-leaning material are aggregations of what each side's groups, officials and publications said. They are reproduced with identical structure and the same components, and where one side found nothing for a contest, the page says so. Neither lens is the voice of this app.
Progressive: endorsement map · full guide. Right-leaning: endorsement map · full guide.
Source tiers
Each of the 601 sources carries one tier. Browse them all on Sources & conflicts.
- 1 · Official
- Official / primary record · 42 sources
- 2 · Press
- Regional or national press, aggregators · 376 sources
- 3 · Reference
- Nonpartisan reference / policy analysis · 39 sources
- 4 · Advocacy
- Advocacy or endorsing organization (cited for its own position) · 106 sources
- 5 · Low reliability
- Commercial site, blog, or low-reliability aggregator · 38 sources
How your ballot works
- Your picks are stored only in this browser, under
hillsborough-2026-ballot-v1. Nothing is sent to a server. - The ballot is never pre-filled. Nothing here scores, matches or recommends a choice.
- The site counts page views anonymously (Vercel Web Analytics) to learn which pages people use. It sets no cookies and records only which page was opened, never your picks, filters or location, and nothing that identifies you. Browsers set to Do Not Track or Global Privacy Control send nothing.
- This is one Hillsborough ballot (style 40300); yours may differ by district. Find your Election Day polling place and the early voting sites at the county’s official lookups below.
- “Find my ballot” is optional. “Use my location” finds your Hillsborough districts on this device, then discards the location; nothing is sent anywhere. Your district contests then show on the My ballot page, and nowhere else. The districts are forgotten when you close the tab unless you choose “Remember on this device”. The site never asks for your ZIP code.
How poll reliability is rated
A transparent rubric built for this page, not an official pollster rating. It scores what is disclosed about each poll. It does not measure a pollster's track record or house effect.
Scoring (0 to 7)
| Factor | Points |
|---|---|
| Independent academic or major-media poll | 3 |
| Commercial or media-commissioned poll | 2 |
| Sponsor with a stake in the outcome | 1 |
| Campaign internal | 0 |
| Sample 1,000 or more / 600 to 999 / smaller or not reported | 2 / 1 / 0 |
| Both sample size and margin of error published | 1 |
| Likely voters (vs. registered or unstated) | 1 |
High is 5 or more, medium 3 to 4, low 2 or less. Sponsored polls are capped at medium and campaign internals at low, whatever their sample.
Pollsters on the analysis page
| Pollster | Class | Why |
|---|---|---|
| University of North Florida (PORL) | Independent academic or major media | University polling lab |
| Stetson University | Independent academic or major media | University polling center |
| Emerson College Polling | Independent academic or major media | University polling center |
| Mason-Dixon (for NBC6/Telemundo 51) | Independent academic or major media | Commissioned by TV stations |
| YouGov | Independent academic or major media | Large online panel |
| Univision / YouGov | Independent academic or major media | Commissioned by a TV network |
| St. Pete Polls (for Florida Politics) | Commercial or media-commissioned | Automated poll commissioned by Florida Politics; flagged in the report's caveats as sponsored |
| Quantus Insights | Commercial or media-commissioned | Commercial pollster; sponsor not stated in the report |
| InsiderAdvantage | Commercial or media-commissioned | Commercial pollster; sponsor not stated in the report |
| co/efficient | Commercial or media-commissioned | Commercial pollster; sponsor not stated in the report |
| ActiVote | Commercial or media-commissioned | App-based commercial poll |
| Change Research | Commercial or media-commissioned | Commercial pollster; sponsor not stated in the report |
| Targoz Market Research (for James Madison Institute) | Sponsor with a stake | Sponsored by the James Madison Institute, a free-market think tank active on tax policy |
| McLaughlin & Associates (for Associated Industries of Florida) | Sponsor with a stake | Sponsored by a statewide business lobby |
| Ruth's List Florida | Sponsor with a stake | Released by a group that backs Democratic women candidates |
| MDW Communications (D) | Sponsor with a stake | Labeled (D) in the report |
| EDGE / MDW Communications | Sponsor with a stake | Labeled with MDW, a Democratic-labeled firm |
| Beacon Insights (for Mercury Public Affairs) | Sponsor with a stake | Sponsored by a public-affairs firm |
| SEA Polling / SEA Research (Rodriguez campaign) | Campaign internal | Campaign internal |
| Taddeo campaign internal | Campaign internal | Campaign internal |
From the method section of Ballot measured.
Watch list
Things the research said to check again before Election Day.
Creative Loafing Tampa Bay 2026 voting recommendations
Status: published Oct 22; added as an editorial column (overrides.editorials) on Oct 23 · Check again: Oct 26–28: recheck the page for edits made after publication
Pre-election campaign finance reports (FEC pre-general, Florida DOE/SOE)
Status: first drop Oct 23: FEC pre-general (through Oct 14), state reports through Oct 9–16, county G4/G5; Nixon's pre-general and the Oct 23 state/county reports still to come · Check again: Oct 28–29: final pass before early voting ends Nov 1
FEC Schedule E independent expenditures (FL-14, Senate)
Status: retrieved Oct 23 from FEC 24/48-hour reports through Oct 22 (money map FL-14 chart and notes; analysis Senate note); recheck in the final pass
Disclaimer
This is a nonpartisan research compilation. It is not affiliated with any candidate, campaign, party or committee, or with the Hillsborough County Supervisor of Elections. It makes no endorsements or vote recommendations.
Research can be wrong or out of date. Verify your ballot, polling place and deadlines at votehillsborough.gov.
Credits
Research compiled from the public sources listed on Sources & conflicts. Every fact traces to a source in the registry.