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Research as of Oct. 24, 2026. Early voting runs through Nov. 1; Election Day is Nov. 3. Check your voter info at votehillsborough.gov

Hillsborough County, FL · Ballot style 40300 · Nov 3, 2026

Right-Leaning Endorsement Guide

Endorsements, stated positions and spending from right-leaning and conservative organizations (Republican Party organizations and officials, business and industry groups, fiscal/free-market groups, gun-rights, anti-abortion and religious-conservative groups, law-enforcement and public-safety unions) for every choice on ballot style 40300. A short line of progressive-side endorsements and the Tampa Bay Times recommendation are included per contest for context. Companion to the progressive endorsement guide. Compiled 2026-10-22. Entries tagged aggregator were seen only on Sparker's Soapbox, The Conservative Ledger, a Wikipedia list, the candidate's own site or a Facebook post — not confirmed on the group's own site.

Republican Party & officialsBusiness & industryFiscal / free-marketGun rightsAnti-abortion & religious conservativeEducation / parents' rightsLaw enforcement & public safety (often bipartisan)Conservative movementLibertarianNonpartisan / government (context)

At a glance

▲ = right-leaning endorsement/support listings · ▼ = opposition/criticism listings (some listings bundle several groups).

ContestRight-leaning activityTampa Bay Times
United States SenatorAshley Moody REP ▲ 11Angie Nixon DEM ▼ 2Recommends Nixon (Oct 16)
Representative in Congress, District 14Mike Beltran REP ▲ 5Kathy Castor DEM ▼ 1Brian Lambert LPF ▲ 1Recommends Castor (Oct 9)
Governor and Lieutenant GovernorByron Donalds / Bryan Avila REP ▲ 17▼ 1David Jolly / Gwen Graham DEM ▼ 3Scott Eckhard Jewett / Nicole Skelly LPF ▲ 1Recommends Jolly (Oct 16)
Attorney GeneralJames Uthmeier REP ▲ 9Jose Javier Rodriguez DEM ▲ 1No 2026 recommendation found
Chief Financial OfficerBlaise Ingoglia REP ▲ 9Annette Taddeo DEM ▼ 1No 2026 recommendation found
Commissioner of AgricultureWilton Simpson REP ▲ 7No 2026 recommendation found
State Senator, District 14Josie Tomkow REP ▲ 4No 2026 recommendation found
State Representative, District 64Dan Weldon REP ▲ 1No 2026 recommendation found
Board of County Commissioners, District 1Jackie Toledo REP ▲ 3Harry Cohen DEM ▲ 5Both Gallaty and Brink recommend Cohen (Oct 3)
Board of County Commissioners, District 5Stacy Hahn REP ▲ 4Split: Gallaty picks Hahn, Brink picks Manimala (Oct 3)
Board of County Commissioners, District 7Joshua Wostal REP ▲ 1Split: Brink picks Wostal (praising his willingness to "buck his own party"), Gallaty picks Rodriguez (Oct 3)
School Board Member, District 6Kenneth "Ken" Gay ▲ 2Both recommend Perez (Oct 4)
Justice Carlos G. Muñiz — Supreme CourtYes (retain) ▲ 2No recommendation found
Judge Drew Atkinson — 2nd District Court of AppealYes (retain) ▲ 1No recommendation found
Judge Morris Silberman — 2nd District Court of AppealYes (retain) ▲ 1No recommendation found
Judge Daniel H. Sleet — 2nd District Court of AppealYes (retain) ▲ 1No recommendation found
Judge Andrea Teves Smith — 2nd District Court of AppealYes (retain) ▲ 1No recommendation found
Amendment 1 — Budget Stabilization FundYes ▲ 4No ▲ 2No recommendation
Amendment 2 — Agricultural Tangible Personal Property Tax ExemptionYes ▲ 5No recommendation
Amendment 3 — Homestead Exemption Increase / Non-Homestead Cap / Local Revenue LimitsYes ▲ 6No ▲ 6No editorial recommendation; dueling guest columns ran Oct 14–19
Referendum 1 — Elected (Partisan) Superintendent of SchoolsYes ▲ 1No ▲ 1Both recommend No (Oct 7)
Referendum 2 — Expand County Commission to 9, All Single-Member DistrictsYes ▲ 4No ▲ 1Both recommend No (Oct 7)
Referendum 3 — Half-Cent School Capital Sales Surtax (renewal)For the tax ▲ 1Both recommend Yes (Oct 7)

Federal

United States Senator

Creative Loafing: Angie NixonTampa Bay Times: Angie NixonEndorsed by Trump: Ashley Moody

Ashley Moody voted for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1, 2025).

The Senate passed it 51–50 on July 1, 2025; all Democrats and Republicans Paul, Tillis and Collins voted no, so Moody voted yes. Source

Why Creative Loafing calls it one of the worst laws in modern history

Special election. UNF poll Oct 12–19: Moody 49, Nixon 45 (News4Jax)

Mark your ballot: United States Senator
EditorialWhy Creative Loafing picks Angie Nixon
  • Nixon won the Democratic primary decisively despite being outspent 16 to 1 by the party's preferred candidate, and CL calls her easy to get behind.
  • She was a single mother for 12 years and runs a Jacksonville bookstore and coffee shop. In six years in the Legislature she filed early-learning bills, fought cuts to public schools and limits on abortion, and was arrested protesting the gerrymandered congressional maps.
  • Her agenda, as CL reports it: extend Affordable Care Act subsidies first, lower costs, shore up Social Security and protect families from medical bankruptcy, partly by raising taxes on the very wealthy.
  • CL relays Nixon's case against Ashley Moody: Moody's role in the Hope Florida scandal, her stock trading, her vote for the "Big Beautiful Bill" and its Medicaid cuts, and her refusal to debate.

The guide lists Nixon without a write-up; these reasons are from CL's Oct. 19 story on her Ybor City rally, which recommends her.

Ray Roa (with Dave Decker), In Ybor City, Angie Nixon and Bernie Sanders rally against ‘lying, cheating, scheming, thieving Ashley Moody’ (w/photos)

Creative Loafing’s pick: Angie NixonEditorial

  • Nixon won the Democratic primary decisively despite being outspent 16 to 1 by the party's preferred candidate, and CL calls her easy to get behind.
  • She was a single mother for 12 years and runs a Jacksonville bookstore and coffee shop. In six years in the Legislature she filed early-learning bills, fought cuts to public schools and limits on abortion, and was arrested protesting the gerrymandered congressional maps.
  • Her agenda, as CL reports it: extend Affordable Care Act subsidies first, lower costs, shore up Social Security and protect families from medical bankruptcy, partly by raising taxes on the very wealthy.
  • CL relays Nixon's case against Ashley Moody: Moody's role in the Hope Florida scandal, her stock trading, her vote for the "Big Beautiful Bill" and its Medicaid cuts, and her refusal to debate.

The guide lists Nixon without a write-up; these reasons are from CL's Oct. 19 story on her Ybor City rally, which recommends her.

Ray Roa (with Dave Decker) · In Ybor City, Angie Nixon and Bernie Sanders rally against ‘lying, cheating, scheming, thieving Ashley Moody’ (w/photos)

Tampa Bay Times: Angie NixonEditorial

“Her excesses are those of an insurgent, while Moody’s record shows a habit of deference to power.”

On Moody: she “squandered her time as attorney general shilling for Trump and acting as DeSantis’ legal wingman.” On Nixon: her public-control proposals are “anathema to traditional American capitalism.” Overall, “this race has centrists reaching for heartburn medication,” and neither has “a credible plan… to lead on big issues like the national debt.”

The Bradenton Times also recommended Nixon.

Trump

  • Endorsed by Trump: Ashley Moody. Trump endorsed her for the 2026 Senate race; money map also calls her a reliable Trump ally. source

Ashley Moody voted for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1, 2025).

The Senate passed it 51–50 on July 1, 2025; all Democrats and Republicans Paul, Tillis and Collins voted no, so Moody voted yes. Source

Why Creative Loafing calls it one of the worst laws in modern history

The case against the progressive side’s pick: Angie Nixon

  • Against Angie Nixon, Moody campaign: Declined to debate her and labels her a self-described socialist (Oct 1, per WUSF). source
  • Against Angie Nixon, RPOF Chair Evan Power: Publicly mocked her Senate bid in September 2025; the guide records no specific argument. source
  • Against Angie Nixon, Guide note: A UNF poll found a quarter of respondents said GOP messaging about her DSA membership made them less likely to back her; the messaging sponsor was not identified.

Ashley Moody REP incumbent

Endorsed by 11

Angie Nixon DEM

Opposed / criticized by 2

UNF found 25% of respondents said Republican messaging about her DSA membership made them less likely to back her; the sponsor of that messaging wasn't identified. No NRSC or Senate Leadership Fund spending figures were retrieved.

Neil J. Gillespie NPA

No right-leaning group activity found.

Primary
Moody beat lesser-known Republicans in August with no organized right-leaning opposition.
Progressive side
Nixon: Florida AFL-CIO, Planned Parenthood, EMILYs List, Sierra Club, LCV, MoveOn, Our Revolution, Working Families Party, Giffords.
Tampa Bay Times
Recommends Nixon (Oct 16) link
Groups checked with nothing found

Trump post specific to the general, NRSC/Senate Leadership Fund Schedule E, SBA Pro-Life America, Florida Right to Life, Heritage Action, AFP, Turning Point Action.

Representative in Congress, District 14

Creative Loafing: Kathy CastorTampa Bay Times: Kathy CastorEndorsed by Trump: Mike Beltran

Kathy Castor voted against the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1, 2025).

Voted No on final House passage, July 3, 2025 (218–214). Source

Why Creative Loafing calls it one of the worst laws in modern history

Redrawn in April 2026 from Trump −7.6 to about Trump +10.5; WFLA calls it a toss-up

Mark your ballot: Representative in Congress — District 14
EditorialWhy Creative Loafing picks Kathy Castor
  • Castor is one of the hardest-working members of Congress and has reliably brought federal money home to Tampa Bay projects over her 20 years.
  • CL grants the case against her: a long tenure, and some Democrats cooled on her after she was among a handful who backed a House resolution denouncing socialism.
  • The deciding factor is her opponent. Mike Beltran calls himself "MAGA Mike," and CL argues that loyalty to Trump makes him no check on the executive branch, whatever his reputation for breaking with Florida Republicans.

Ray Roa, Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: Hillsborough and Pinellas congressional seats

Creative Loafing’s pick: Kathy CastorEditorial

  • Castor is one of the hardest-working members of Congress and has reliably brought federal money home to Tampa Bay projects over her 20 years.
  • CL grants the case against her: a long tenure, and some Democrats cooled on her after she was among a handful who backed a House resolution denouncing socialism.
  • The deciding factor is her opponent. Mike Beltran calls himself "MAGA Mike," and CL argues that loyalty to Trump makes him no check on the executive branch, whatever his reputation for breaking with Florida Republicans.

Ray Roa · Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: Hillsborough and Pinellas congressional seats

Tampa Bay Times: Kathy CastorEditorial

Castor wins “because she is already doing a good job as a strong advocate for the district.”

The Times called it “a tougher decision” and praised Beltran as “a freethinker, unafraid to buck his own party.”

Trump

  • Endorsed by Trump: Mike Beltran. Trump endorsed him around Sept. 1, per NRCC announcement; he also calls himself "MAGA Mike". source

Kathy Castor voted against the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1, 2025).

Voted No on final House passage, July 3, 2025 (218–214). Source

Why Creative Loafing calls it one of the worst laws in modern history

The case against the progressive side’s pick: Kathy Castor

  • Against Kathy Castor, NRCC: Called her a "radical Democrat" in a Sept 1 statement; no spending figure found. source

Mike Beltran REP

Endorsed by 5

He wants to end sugar subsidies, at odds with U.S. Sugar (Fox 13); no sugar-industry spending found. After the primary he swapped Trump imagery for "Tampa Bay First" messaging (Florida Politics).

Kathy Castor DEM incumbent

Opposed / criticized by 1

  • GOP
    NRCCStatement calling her a "radical Democrat" (Sep 1); no spending figure found

Brian Lambert LPF

Endorsed by 1

  • Libertarian
    Libertarian Party of FloridaParty nominee (ballot label; no separate campaign found)
Primary
Beltran, a former three-term state rep who calls himself "MAGA Mike," won the Aug 18 primary with 45.6%; the GOP establishment had backed Kevin Steele. He did not endorse DeSantis for president in 2024.
Money
FEC through Jul 29 (via The Conservative Ledger): Beltran raised $2.12M ($1.94M cash on hand); Castor $2.34M ($1.74M on hand).
Progressive side
Castor: Florida AFL-CIO, EMILYs List, Equality Florida, LCV; Democratic and environmental groups have spent ~$7M against Beltran.
Tampa Bay Times
Recommends Castor (Oct 9) link
Groups checked with nothing found

Congressional Leadership Fund, NRCC Schedule E, Club for Growth, NRA-PVF, SBA Pro-Life America, AFP.

State Executive

Governor and Lieutenant Governor

Creative Loafing: David Jolly / Gwen GrahamTampa Bay Times: David JollyEndorsed by Trump: Byron Donalds

Byron Donalds voted for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1, 2025).

Then a U.S. representative, voted Aye on final House passage, July 3, 2025 (218–214). Source

Why Creative Loafing calls it one of the worst laws in modern history

UNF poll Oct 12–19: Donalds 49, Jolly 47. Donalds had raised $111M+ by Aug 17, mostly from large corporations (WLRN)

Mark your ballot: Governor and Lieutenant Governor
EditorialWhy Creative Loafing picks David Jolly / Gwen Graham

Creative Loafing listed this pick in its guide without a write-up.

Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for

Creative Loafing’s pick: David Jolly / Gwen GrahamEditorial

Listed in Creative Loafing’s guide without a write-up.

Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for

Tampa Bay Times: David JollyEditorial

Jolly is “centrist, practical, a capitalist who believes government should improve everyone’s life.”

The Times laid out Donalds’ case against Jolly: a flip-flopper whose insurance fund is a “hurricane tax.” It also noted Donalds’ money advantage and that no Democrat has won the governorship since 1994.

The Palm Beach Post also backed Jolly.

Trump

  • Endorsed by Trump: Byron Donalds. Trump endorsed him in Feb. 2025, before he entered the race. source

Byron Donalds voted for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1, 2025).

Then a U.S. representative, voted Aye on final House passage, July 3, 2025 (218–214). Source

Why Creative Loafing calls it one of the worst laws in modern history

The case against the progressive side’s pick: David Jolly

  • Against David Jolly, Republican Party of Florida: Statewide ad campaign (from Oct 19) telling GOP voters Jolly would dismantle DeSantis-era policies; spend undisclosed. source
  • Against David Jolly, Republican Governors Association: At his 2025 launch it said he goes wherever political winds blow; no RGA spending found. source
  • Against David Jolly, Donalds campaign: Ran August ads casting Jolly as a "radical liberal." source

Byron Donalds / Bryan Avila REP

Endorsed by 17

Opposed / criticized by 1

Intra-right: DeSantis and Donalds have a history of friction (Trump endorsed Donalds over a possible Casey DeSantis run), though both oppose Amendment 1 and DeSantis endorsed him after the primary.

David Jolly / Gwen Graham DEM

Opposed / criticized by 3

Jolly is a former Republican congressman. No right-leaning group endorses him; his campaign targets moderate Republicans, and individual lifelong Republicans campaign for him (Tampa Bay Times). The centrist Forward Party endorsed him.

Scott Eckhard Jewett / Nicole Skelly LPF

Endorsed by 1

  • Libertarian
    Libertarian Party of FloridaParty nominees (ballot label)

Charles Burkett / Ruben A. Coto NPA

No right-leaning group activity found.

Frank J. Russo / Rachel Rodriguez NPA

No right-leaning group activity found.

Moliere "Moe" Dimanche / Benjiman Rojas NPA

No right-leaning group activity found.

Dean Ocean Abrams / Joe Van Vactor NPA

No right-leaning group activity found.

Jeffrey Peter "Dr. Jeff" Datto / Juan Santana NPA

No right-leaning group activity found.

Primary
Donalds beat ten Republican rivals in August. DeSantis did not endorse in the primary.
Progressive side
Jolly: Florida AFL-CIO, FEA, AFSCME, Planned Parenthood PAC, Equality Florida, Sierra Club; the Democratic Progressive Caucus backed a rival in the primary.
Tampa Bay Times
Recommends Jolly (Oct 16) link
Groups checked with nothing found

RGA spending figures, Florida Right to Life, Florida Family Policy Council, Moms for Liberty.

Attorney General

Sabato rates it Likely R

Mark your ballot: Attorney General
EditorialWhy Creative Loafing picks José Javier Rodríguez

Creative Loafing listed this pick in its guide without a write-up.

Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for

Creative Loafing’s pick: José Javier RodríguezEditorial

Listed in Creative Loafing’s guide without a write-up.

Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for

Trump

  • Endorsed by Trump: James Uthmeier. Part of the Republican statewide slate Trump endorsed (Donalds, Moody, Uthmeier, Ingoglia, Simpson). source

The case against the progressive side’s pick: Jose Javier Rodriguez

This guide’s research records no argument against the progressive side’s pick here.

James Uthmeier REP incumbent

Endorsed by 9

Intra-right context: his refusal to defend the under-21 long-gun law drew praise from gun-rights groups but criticism from others (Florida Phoenix).

Jose Javier Rodriguez DEM

Endorsed by 1

Primary
Neither candidate had a primary.
Progressive side
Rodriguez: Florida AFL-CIO, Planned Parenthood PAC, Equality Florida, Sierra Club, Florida Rising. Democratic legislators called for Uthmeier's resignation over the Hope Florida grand jury findings.
Tampa Bay Times
No 2026 recommendation found
Groups checked with nothing found

Florida Chamber endorsement specific to Uthmeier, RAGA spending filing, NRA.

Chief Financial Officer

Mark your ballot: Chief Financial Officer
EditorialWhy Creative Loafing picks Annette Taddeo

Creative Loafing listed this pick in its guide without a write-up.

Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for

Creative Loafing’s pick: Annette TaddeoEditorial

Listed in Creative Loafing’s guide without a write-up.

Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for

Trump

  • Endorsed by Trump: Blaise Ingoglia. Part of the Republican statewide slate Trump endorsed (Donalds, Moody, Uthmeier, Ingoglia, Simpson). source

The case against the progressive side’s pick: Annette Taddeo

  • Against Annette Taddeo, Republican Party of Florida: Issued a release branding her a failed candidate being recycled by Democrats; no further detail recorded. source

Blaise Ingoglia REP incumbent

Endorsed by 9

Annette Taddeo DEM

Opposed / criticized by 1

Primary
Ingoglia, a former legislator and homebuilder appointed in 2025, beat Frank Collige 61.3%–38.7%; Collige's backers weren't identified.
Progressive side
Taddeo: Florida AFL-CIO, Ruth's List, Equality Florida, Latino Victory Fund.
Tampa Bay Times
No 2026 recommendation found
Groups checked with nothing found

NRA, SBA Pro-Life America, AFP.

Commissioner of Agriculture

Mark your ballot: Commissioner of Agriculture
EditorialWhy Creative Loafing picks Joey Mendoza Atkins

Creative Loafing listed this pick in its guide without a write-up.

Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for

Creative Loafing’s pick: Joey Mendoza AtkinsEditorial

Listed in Creative Loafing’s guide without a write-up.

Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for

Trump

  • Endorsed by Trump: Wilton Simpson. Part of the Republican statewide slate Trump endorsed (Donalds, Moody, Uthmeier, Ingoglia, Simpson). source

The case against the progressive side’s pick: Joey Mendoza Atkins

This guide’s research records no argument against the progressive side’s pick here.

Wilton Simpson REP incumbent

Endorsed by 7

Joey Mendoza Atkins DEM

No right-leaning group activity found.

Write-in

No right-leaning group activity found.

Primary
Simpson, a former Senate President and egg farmer, beat Matt Taylor 68.9%–31.1%.
Progressive side
Atkins: Democratic caucuses only; the major progressive slates skip this race.
Tampa Bay Times
No 2026 recommendation found
Groups checked with nothing found

U.S. Sugar, Florida Crystals, Mosaic contributions (state finance data not retrieved).

State Legislature

State Senator, District 14

Rematch. Nathan won the March 24 special election 40,212 to 39,804 in an R+7.4 district

Mark your ballot: State Senator — District 14
EditorialWhy Creative Loafing picks Brian Nathan
  • CL calls the Republican ad tying Nathan to the Party for Socialism and Liberation a desperate smear: it is built on a CL photo from a May Day workers' rally that the West Central Florida Labor Council helped organize.
  • Nathan, who won the seat in a special election in March, stands with working people; CL sees that as a belief that honest work should pay for a dignified life, not as socialism.
  • Against Josie Tomkow: in nearly eight years in the Legislature she voted for the 2023 limits on public-sector unions (SB 256), skipped the final vote on the 2024 bill blocking local heat-protection and wage rules (HB 433), and this year voted for a law making public-sector union recertification harder.
  • More broadly, CL says Florida Republicans claim to be the workers' party while resisting minimum-wage increases, banning local living-wage rules for contractors and loosening child-labor protections.

Ray Roa, Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: Tampa Bay's Florida State Senators

Creative Loafing’s pick: Brian NathanEditorial

  • CL calls the Republican ad tying Nathan to the Party for Socialism and Liberation a desperate smear: it is built on a CL photo from a May Day workers' rally that the West Central Florida Labor Council helped organize.
  • Nathan, who won the seat in a special election in March, stands with working people; CL sees that as a belief that honest work should pay for a dignified life, not as socialism.
  • Against Josie Tomkow: in nearly eight years in the Legislature she voted for the 2023 limits on public-sector unions (SB 256), skipped the final vote on the 2024 bill blocking local heat-protection and wage rules (HB 433), and this year voted for a law making public-sector union recertification harder.
  • More broadly, CL says Florida Republicans claim to be the workers' party while resisting minimum-wage increases, banning local living-wage rules for contractors and loosening child-labor protections.

Ray Roa · Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: Tampa Bay's Florida State Senators

The case against the progressive side’s pick: Brian Nathan

This guide’s research records no argument against the progressive side’s pick here.

Josie Tomkow REP

Endorsed by 4

Brian Nathan DEM incumbent

No right-leaning group activity found.

Money
General-election contributions (Transparency USA, from Division of Elections data): Tomkow $168,042; Nathan $77,889. A PAC spent $3M+ for Tomkow in the special.
Progressive side
Nathan: Florida AFL-CIO, Planned Parenthood PAC, Equality Florida, Sierra Club, DLCC target race.
Tampa Bay Times
No 2026 recommendation found
Groups checked with nothing found

Florida Chamber, AIF, NRA, Florida Right to Life endorsements for the general.

State Representative, District 64

Open seat

Mark your ballot: State Representative — District 64
EditorialWhy Creative Loafing picks Luis Salazar

Creative Loafing listed this pick in its guide without a write-up.

Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for

Creative Loafing’s pick: Luis SalazarEditorial

Listed in Creative Loafing’s guide without a write-up.

Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for

The case against the progressive side’s pick: Luis Salazar

  • Against Luis Salazar, Guide note: Notes that business group Associated Industries of Florida backed his Democratic primary rival, Mike Suarez; this is context, not a stated objection. source

Dan Weldon REP

Endorsed by 1

Describes himself as a "conservative activist"; lists no other endorsements.

Luis Salazar DEM

In the Democratic primary, business group Associated Industries of Florida backed his rival Mike Suarez (AIF).

Progressive side
Salazar: Florida AFL-CIO, Equality Florida, LGBTQ+ Victory Fund, Florida Rising, DLCC target race.
Tampa Bay Times
No 2026 recommendation found
Groups checked with nothing found

Not researched in depth — a gap rather than a confirmed absence.

County

Board of County Commissioners, District 1

Cohen leads in total raised (~$186K to ~$128K) plus $400K+ in his committee, Hillsborough Together

Mark your ballot: Board of County Commissioners — District 1
EditorialWhy Creative Loafing picks Harry Cohen

Creative Loafing listed this pick in its guide without a write-up.

Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for

Both sides agree: Harry Cohen

4 progressive and 5 right-leaning support entries (the right-leaning guide also lists 3 entries for Toledo, the GOP nominee, including the county GOP slate)

  • Progressive, West Central Florida Labor Council, AFL-CIO: Listed Cohen on its Oct 7 endorsement list, which the teachers union (HCTA) tells members to follow. source
  • Progressive, Equality Florida Action PAC: Included Cohen on its endorsed-candidates list; no reason given. source
  • Progressive, Transport Workers Union: Listed as a Cohen endorser by Blue Voter Guide; no reason given. source
  • Progressive, Hillsborough County Democratic Party and caucuses: Listed as backing Cohen by Blue Voter Guide; no reason given. source
  • Right-leaning, Hillsborough Sheriff Chad Chronister (R): A Republican officeholder backing the Democratic incumbent, per the Times commission recommendations. source
  • Right-leaning, State Attorney Suzy Lopez (R): Endorsed Cohen in October, adding bipartisan support for the incumbent. source
  • Right-leaning, Former Tax Collector Doug Belden (R): A 22-year office holder who backed Cohen in October. source
  • Right-leaning, Suncoast PBA, Tampa PBA, Firefighters Local 2294: Bipartisan public-safety unions listed among Cohen's backers in the Times recommendations. source

Creative Loafing’s pick: Harry CohenEditorial

Listed in Creative Loafing’s guide without a write-up.

Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: Hillsborough County Commission, School Board and referendums

Tampa Bay Times: Harry CohenEditorial

Both Gallaty and Brink picked Cohen.

The available excerpt did not include detailed reasoning about Toledo.

The case against the progressive side’s pick: Harry Cohen

This guide’s research records no argument against the progressive side’s pick here.

Jackie Toledo REP

Endorsed by 3

Harry Cohen DEM incumbent

Endorsed by 5

Primary
The clearest intra-right split on the ballot: Republican sheriff, state attorney and former tax collector back the Democratic incumbent over the GOP nominee.
Progressive side
Cohen: Equality Florida, West Central Florida Labor Council.
Tampa Bay Times
Both Gallaty and Brink recommend Cohen (Oct 3) link
Groups checked with nothing found

Florida Chamber, Tampa Bay Partnership, NRA, Moms for Liberty. Toledo faces a $17K debt lawsuit involving her engineering firm — not group opposition.

Board of County Commissioners, District 5

Creative Loafing: Neil Manimala

Creative Loafing picks Neil Manimala instead:

  • Manimala is the only commission candidate with a comprehensive plan to make it possible to live in Hillsborough without a car: better transit and less strain on the roads, which CL sees as the county's core growth, safety, cost and health problem.
  • CL expects him to work with both parties and calls him a hard worker with fresh ideas.
  • CL credits Stacy Hahn's eight years on the School Board and her primary win over incumbent Donna Cameron Cepeda, but argues Manimala is the one who can fix how the county gets around.

Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: Hillsborough County Commission, School Board and referendums

The Times' reasoning, and Creative Loafing's

Tampa Bay Times (Brink): Neil Manimala

Countywide seat

Mark your ballot: Board of County Commissioners — District 5
EditorialWhy Creative Loafing picks Neil Manimala
  • Manimala is the only commission candidate with a comprehensive plan to make it possible to live in Hillsborough without a car: better transit and less strain on the roads, which CL sees as the county's core growth, safety, cost and health problem.
  • CL expects him to work with both parties and calls him a hard worker with fresh ideas.
  • CL credits Stacy Hahn's eight years on the School Board and her primary win over incumbent Donna Cameron Cepeda, but argues Manimala is the one who can fix how the county gets around.

Valerie Smith, Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: Hillsborough County Commission, School Board and referendums

Creative Loafing’s pick: Neil ManimalaEditorial

  • Manimala is the only commission candidate with a comprehensive plan to make it possible to live in Hillsborough without a car: better transit and less strain on the roads, which CL sees as the county's core growth, safety, cost and health problem.
  • CL expects him to work with both parties and calls him a hard worker with fresh ideas.
  • CL credits Stacy Hahn's eight years on the School Board and her primary win over incumbent Donna Cameron Cepeda, but argues Manimala is the one who can fix how the county gets around.

Valerie Smith · Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: Hillsborough County Commission, School Board and referendums

Tampa Bay Times: Gallaty: Stacy Hahn · Brink: Neil ManimalaEditorial

Gallaty: Hahn “brings the experience and temperament” and connects dollars to “measurable outcomes.”

Brink: “Rarely does a first-time political candidate have such a keen awareness… In this close call, Manimala gets the edge.”

Creative Loafing differs: it picks Neil Manimala. Its reasons are above.

The case against the progressive side’s pick: Neil Manimala

This guide’s research records no argument against the progressive side’s pick here.

Stacy Hahn REP

Endorsed by 4

Neil Manimala DEM

No right-leaning group activity found.

Primary
Hahn beat incumbent Republican Commissioner Donna Cameron Cepeda 54.9%–45.1%; Cepeda's backers didn't publicly cross over.
Progressive side
Manimala: Equality Florida, Sierra Club, Florida Rising, Run for Something, Labor Council.
Tampa Bay Times
Split: Gallaty picks Hahn, Brink picks Manimala (Oct 3) link
Groups checked with nothing found

Florida Chamber, Tampa Bay Partnership, Moms for Liberty.

Board of County Commissioners, District 7

Creative Loafing: Aileen RodriguezTampa Bay Times (Gallaty): Aileen Rodriguez

Creative Loafing picks Aileen Rodriguez instead:

  • Against incumbent Joshua Wostal: he opposed the county's health care program for low-income residents and funding for local arts, refused to sign commendations for Tampa Pride and the Tampa Organization of Black Affairs' MLK breakfast, and builds no coalitions; even his popular vote against Rays stadium money drew only one ally.
  • His PAC took a late $50,000 check from developer Homes by West Bay, its largest ever and over $62,000 in all from that developer; its next-largest donor is tied to the lawsuit that killed the All For Transportation tax.
  • Rodriguez, a former director for U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez, has long been active in the community and brings steady, practical ideas on transit and responsible growth. She also beat former Clerk of Court Cindy Stuart in the primary.
  • With the commission possibly growing, CL wants a member who unifies rather than divides.

Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: Hillsborough County Commission, School Board and referendums

The Times' reasoning, and Creative Loafing's

Countywide seat

Mark your ballot: Board of County Commissioners — District 7
EditorialWhy Creative Loafing picks Aileen Rodriguez
  • Against incumbent Joshua Wostal: he opposed the county's health care program for low-income residents and funding for local arts, refused to sign commendations for Tampa Pride and the Tampa Organization of Black Affairs' MLK breakfast, and builds no coalitions; even his popular vote against Rays stadium money drew only one ally.
  • His PAC took a late $50,000 check from developer Homes by West Bay, its largest ever and over $62,000 in all from that developer; its next-largest donor is tied to the lawsuit that killed the All For Transportation tax.
  • Rodriguez, a former director for U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez, has long been active in the community and brings steady, practical ideas on transit and responsible growth. She also beat former Clerk of Court Cindy Stuart in the primary.
  • With the commission possibly growing, CL wants a member who unifies rather than divides.

Ray Roa, Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: Hillsborough County Commission, School Board and referendums

Creative Loafing’s pick: Aileen RodriguezEditorial

  • Against incumbent Joshua Wostal: he opposed the county's health care program for low-income residents and funding for local arts, refused to sign commendations for Tampa Pride and the Tampa Organization of Black Affairs' MLK breakfast, and builds no coalitions; even his popular vote against Rays stadium money drew only one ally.
  • His PAC took a late $50,000 check from developer Homes by West Bay, its largest ever and over $62,000 in all from that developer; its next-largest donor is tied to the lawsuit that killed the All For Transportation tax.
  • Rodriguez, a former director for U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez, has long been active in the community and brings steady, practical ideas on transit and responsible growth. She also beat former Clerk of Court Cindy Stuart in the primary.
  • With the commission possibly growing, CL wants a member who unifies rather than divides.

Ray Roa · Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: Hillsborough County Commission, School Board and referendums

Tampa Bay Times: Gallaty: Aileen Rodriguez · Brink: Joshua WostalEditorial

Gallaty: Wostal’s support for cutting the low-income healthcare program is “a significant difference.”

Brink: credited Wostal’s push to overhaul HART and said he “has already proven his worth.”

Creative Loafing differs: it picks Aileen Rodriguez. Its reasons are above.

The case against the progressive side’s pick: Aileen Rodriguez

  • Against Aileen Rodriguez, Guide note: Notes she left the Republican Party in 2019 and was communications director for the 2012 RNC Tampa host committee; background, not a stated objection.

Joshua Wostal REP incumbent

Endorsed by 1

In 2024 he led the GOP majority that stalled a schools tax referendum (Axios). He supports Referendum 2.

Aileen Rodriguez DEM

A former Republican who left the party in 2019; she was communications director for the 2012 RNC Tampa host committee.

Progressive side
Rodriguez: Equality Florida, Sierra Club, Florida Rising, Labor Council.
Tampa Bay Times
Split: Brink picks Wostal (praising his willingness to "buck his own party"), Gallaty picks Rodriguez (Oct 3) link
Groups checked with nothing found

Florida Chamber, Tampa Bay Partnership, Tampa Bay Builders Association.

School Board Member, District 6

Nonpartisan, countywide runoff. WUSF reports Gay as a Republican and Perez as a Democrat; registration not checked

Mark your ballot: School Board Member — District 6
EditorialWhy Creative Loafing picks Karen Perez
  • The race is nonpartisan, but Ken Gay's largest donor is the Hillsborough County Republican Party, which gave him $5,000 in September and endorsed him. CL describes that party as anti-union and fixated on DEI, Muslims in classrooms and transgender students.
  • CL says voters are tired of culture-war bait in school board races.
  • Perez, a social worker and strong public school advocate, is the most qualified, and CL sees no reason not to re-elect her.

Colin Wolf, Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: Hillsborough County Commission, School Board and referendums

Creative Loafing’s pick: Karen PerezEditorial

  • The race is nonpartisan, but Ken Gay's largest donor is the Hillsborough County Republican Party, which gave him $5,000 in September and endorsed him. CL describes that party as anti-union and fixated on DEI, Muslims in classrooms and transgender students.
  • CL says voters are tired of culture-war bait in school board races.
  • Perez, a social worker and strong public school advocate, is the most qualified, and CL sees no reason not to re-elect her.

Colin Wolf · Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: Hillsborough County Commission, School Board and referendums

Tampa Bay Times: Karen PerezEditorial

The editors call Perez the better-qualified candidate: calm, thoughtful leadership since 2018, a voice for people who are often overlooked, a push for more open board business, steady support for school safety, and pressure on the district when it fell short. Her social-work and mental-health background helps struggling students, and they back her plan to keep traditional public schools competitive with charter and private schools. She has “the experience and the skill set” the board needs.

The Times describes Gay, 67, as a former teacher and administrator who now works for a nonprofit that teaches health and safety lessons to students, and notes he lost a board race two years ago. It says that in his interview with the editors he had trouble laying out a clear vision for the district.

The case against the progressive side’s pick: Karen Perez

This guide’s research records no argument against the progressive side’s pick here.

Kenneth "Ken" Gay

Endorsed by 2

  • GOP
    Hillsborough County Republican PartyOfficial 2026 slate card (paid for by the Hillsborough County Republican Executive Committee)
  • Pro-life / faith
    Patriots4AmericaaggregatorNot an endorsement: his Facebook shows an appearance at its event, and his campaign paid it $100 for a table in July

WUSF (Oct 8): "mostly self-funded and does not have public endorsements." That conflicts with the party slate card above and with the Hillsborough GOP's $5,000 contribution to his campaign on Sept 21 (county finance reports). He opposes an elected superintendent, as does Perez.

Karen Perez incumbent

No right-leaning group activity found.

Primary
August: Perez 48.3%, Gay 27.2%, Sally Harris Williamson 24.5%. Moms for Liberty hasn't invested in school board races this cycle (Florida Politics).
Progressive side
Perez: HCTA (teachers union), Equality Florida, Sierra Club, Florida Rising, Ruth's List, Hillsborough LGBTQ+ Democratic Caucus.
Tampa Bay Times
Both recommend Perez (Oct 4) link
Groups checked with nothing found

Moms for Liberty (national or Hillsborough), DeSantis, Florida Citizens Alliance, 1776 Project PAC.

Judicial Retention

No right-leaning group urges a No vote on any of these five jurists.

Justice Carlos G. Muñiz — Supreme Court

Appointed by Gov. DeSantis (2019)

Mark your ballot: Retain Carlos G. Muñiz
EditorialWhy Creative Loafing picks No
  • A retention vote asks whether a justice has done the job as it should be done, not whether you like his politics. Here, CL says, the answer turns on respect for settled precedent (stare decisis).
  • In 2020, soon after joining the court with no prior judicial experience, Muñiz joined a majority that dropped Florida's test for overruling precedent, so that reliance and stability no longer count on their own.
  • In April 2024 he joined the ruling that the state constitution's privacy clause never protected abortion, overturning 35 years of precedent and triggering the six-week ban. Nothing in the constitution had changed, only the court's membership.
  • He also joined the 2020 rewrite of Florida's summary-judgment rule, which CL argues takes disputed cases away from juries. Justice Jorge Labarga, a Republican appointee, dissented both times.
  • No Florida justice has ever lost a retention vote; CL argues a No is how this check is meant to work, whatever you think of abortion.

The guide lists No without a write-up; the reasons are from an op-ed CL published Oct. 13.

Creative Loafing op-ed (posted by Ray Roa), Op-ed: Vote 'No' on retaining Florida Supreme Court Justice Carlos Muñiz

Creative Loafing’s pick: NoEditorial

  • A retention vote asks whether a justice has done the job as it should be done, not whether you like his politics. Here, CL says, the answer turns on respect for settled precedent (stare decisis).
  • In 2020, soon after joining the court with no prior judicial experience, Muñiz joined a majority that dropped Florida's test for overruling precedent, so that reliance and stability no longer count on their own.
  • In April 2024 he joined the ruling that the state constitution's privacy clause never protected abortion, overturning 35 years of precedent and triggering the six-week ban. Nothing in the constitution had changed, only the court's membership.
  • He also joined the 2020 rewrite of Florida's summary-judgment rule, which CL argues takes disputed cases away from juries. Justice Jorge Labarga, a Republican appointee, dissented both times.
  • No Florida justice has ever lost a retention vote; CL argues a No is how this check is meant to work, whatever you think of abortion.

The guide lists No without a write-up; the reasons are from an op-ed CL published Oct. 13.

Creative Loafing op-ed (posted by Ray Roa) · Op-ed: Vote 'No' on retaining Florida Supreme Court Justice Carlos Muñiz

The case against the progressive side’s pick: No (remove)

This guide’s research records no argument against the progressive side’s pick here.

Yes (retain)

Recommended by 2

No (remove)

No right-leaning group activity found.

Bar poll
2020 Florida Bar poll: 71% for retention (no 2026 poll)
Progressive side
Florida LGBTQ+ Democratic Caucus recommends NO, citing his abortion and redistricting votes.
Tampa Bay Times
No recommendation found
Groups checked with nothing found

Federalist Society statements (membership is an affiliation, not an endorsement), Florida Right to Life.

Judge Drew Atkinson — 2nd District Court of Appeal

Appointed by Gov. Rick Scott

Mark your ballot: Retain Drew Atkinson
EditorialWhy Creative Loafing picks No

Creative Loafing listed this pick in its guide without a write-up.

Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for

Creative Loafing’s pick: NoEditorial

Listed in Creative Loafing’s guide without a write-up.

Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for

The case against the progressive side’s pick

This guide’s research records no argument against the progressive side’s pick here.

Yes (retain)

Recommended by 1

No (remove)

No right-leaning group activity found.

Bar poll
2020 Florida Bar poll: 76% for retention
Tampa Bay Times
No recommendation found
Groups checked with nothing found

RPOF's guide covers only the Supreme Court retention.

Judge Morris Silberman — 2nd District Court of Appeal

Appointed by Gov. Jeb Bush (2001)

Mark your ballot: Retain Morris Silberman
EditorialWhy Creative Loafing picks Yes

Creative Loafing listed this pick in its guide without a write-up.

Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for

Creative Loafing’s pick: YesEditorial

Listed in Creative Loafing’s guide without a write-up.

Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for

The case against the progressive side’s pick

This guide’s research records no argument against the progressive side’s pick here.

Yes (retain)

Recommended by 1

No (remove)

No right-leaning group activity found.

Bar poll
2020 Florida Bar poll: 90% for retention
Tampa Bay Times
No recommendation found
Groups checked with nothing found

RPOF's guide covers only the Supreme Court retention.

Judge Daniel H. Sleet — 2nd District Court of Appeal

Appointed by Gov. Rick Scott

Mark your ballot: Retain Daniel H. Sleet
EditorialWhy Creative Loafing picks Yes

Creative Loafing listed this pick in its guide without a write-up.

Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for

Creative Loafing’s pick: YesEditorial

Listed in Creative Loafing’s guide without a write-up.

Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for

The case against the progressive side’s pick

This guide’s research records no argument against the progressive side’s pick here.

Yes (retain)

Recommended by 1

No (remove)

No right-leaning group activity found.

Bar poll
2020 Florida Bar poll: 85% for retention
Tampa Bay Times
No recommendation found
Groups checked with nothing found

RPOF's guide covers only the Supreme Court retention.

Judge Andrea Teves Smith — 2nd District Court of Appeal

Appointed by Gov. Rick Scott (2019)

Mark your ballot: Retain Andrea Teves Smith
EditorialWhy Creative Loafing picks No

Creative Loafing listed this pick in its guide without a write-up.

Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for

Creative Loafing’s pick: NoEditorial

Listed in Creative Loafing’s guide without a write-up.

Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for

The case against the progressive side’s pick

This guide’s research records no argument against the progressive side’s pick here.

Yes (retain)

Recommended by 1

No (remove)

No right-leaning group activity found.

Bar poll
2020 Florida Bar poll: 82% for retention
Tampa Bay Times
No recommendation found
Groups checked with nothing found

RPOF's guide covers only the Supreme Court retention.

State Constitutional Amendments

Each needs 60% to pass. The Republican Party of Florida and the Hillsborough GOP say YES on all three; the right splits on 1 and 3.

Amendment 1 — Budget Stabilization Fund

Mark your ballot: Amendment 1: Budget Stabilization Fund
EditorialWhy Creative Loafing picks No
  • It would let the state's rainy-day fund grow from 10% to 25% of general revenue; Florida TaxWatch says reaching that could take 22 years.
  • The fund, created in 1992, is nearly full and hasn't been drawn on since 2008. Nothing needs fixing.
  • CL doesn't want to give Tallahassee more control over tax money, and notes Gov. DeSantis is also urging a No.

Ray Roa, Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: Florida's Constitutional Amendments

Creative Loafing’s pick: NoEditorial

  • It would let the state's rainy-day fund grow from 10% to 25% of general revenue; Florida TaxWatch says reaching that could take 22 years.
  • The fund, created in 1992, is nearly full and hasn't been drawn on since 2008. Nothing needs fixing.
  • CL doesn't want to give Tallahassee more control over tax money, and notes Gov. DeSantis is also urging a No.

Ray Roa · Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: Florida's Constitutional Amendments

Tampa Bay Times: NoEditorial

The Times recommends No.

The excerpt available did not include detailed reasoning.

The case against the progressive side’s pick: No

  • Against No, Republican Party of Florida: Argues a bigger rainy-day fund keeps Florida ready for storms without raising taxes (Sept 14). source

YES raises the rainy-day fund cap from 10% to 25% of general revenue with mandatory yearly transfers. Passed the Legislature 100–1 (House) and 29–4 (Senate); House Speaker Daniel Perez pushed it.

Yes

Recommended by 4

No

Recommended by 2

  • GOP
    Gov. Ron DeSantisCalled it "foolish" and "a solution in search of a problem"; "I'm recommending a no" (Sep 14–18, repeated Oct 21)
  • GOP
    Byron DonaldsOpposes via campaign spokesperson (Oct)
Primary
Intra-right split: the sitting Republican governor and the party's nominee against the state party; Florida Politics ties it to wider DeSantis–RPOF and DeSantis–House friction (source).
Progressive side
West Central Florida Labor Council and several Democratic county parties say NO; Hillsborough Democrats make no recommendation; Jolly supports it with guardrails.
Tampa Bay Times
No recommendation
Groups checked with nothing found

AFP, James Madison Institute, Florida Chamber, AIF.

Amendment 2 — Agricultural Tangible Personal Property Tax Exemption

Creative Loafing: No

Creative Loafing picks No instead:

  • It's a property-tax break for farm equipment, costing local governments roughly $31 million a year.
  • CL calls it a special-interest break that helps big agriculture most; small farms already pay less because every business's first $25,000 of equipment is exempt.
  • Lawmakers should find better ways to help small family farms and farmworkers.

Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: Florida's Constitutional Amendments

The Times' reasoning, and Creative Loafing's

Mark your ballot: Amendment 2: Exemption of Tangible Personal Property on Agricultural Land from Taxation
EditorialWhy Creative Loafing picks No
  • It's a property-tax break for farm equipment, costing local governments roughly $31 million a year.
  • CL calls it a special-interest break that helps big agriculture most; small farms already pay less because every business's first $25,000 of equipment is exempt.
  • Lawmakers should find better ways to help small family farms and farmworkers.

Ray Roa, Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: Florida's Constitutional Amendments

Creative Loafing’s pick: NoEditorial

  • It's a property-tax break for farm equipment, costing local governments roughly $31 million a year.
  • CL calls it a special-interest break that helps big agriculture most; small farms already pay less because every business's first $25,000 of equipment is exempt.
  • Lawmakers should find better ways to help small family farms and farmworkers.

Ray Roa · Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: Florida's Constitutional Amendments

Tampa Bay Times: YesEditorial

The Times recommends Yes.

Other Florida papers disagree: the Orlando Sentinel, Miami Herald and Sun-Sentinel recommend No.

Creative Loafing differs: it picks No. Its reasons are above.

The case against the progressive side’s pick: No

  • Against No, Guide note: Found no right-leaning opposition; the lone House No vote came from a Democrat (Eskamani).

YES exempts farm equipment and other personal property on agricultural land from property tax starting 2027 (~$31M/yr local revenue).

Yes

Recommended by 5

No

No right-leaning opposition found. The lone House NO vote was Democrat Anna Eskamani.

Progressive side
Hillsborough Democrats, the Labor Council and FEA say NO.
Tampa Bay Times
No recommendation
Groups checked with nothing found

Florida Cattlemen's, Florida Citrus Mutual, sugar companies (no separate statements).

Amendment 3 — Homestead Exemption Increase / Non-Homestead Cap / Local Revenue Limits

Mark your ballot: Amendment 3: Increased Homestead Exemption; Lower Cap on Increases in Non-Homestead Property Assessments
EditorialWhy Creative Loafing picks No
  • State economists estimate local governments would lose about $11.8 billion a year by 2031–32. Even police and firefighter unions urge a No.
  • It was rushed through a three-day special session, and a judge threw out the first ballot title and summary.
  • The Florida Realtors lobby has put millions behind it. CL calls it a distraction from property insurance, the real cost problem, and a hypocritical power grab that would leave cities begging Tallahassee for money.
  • CL notes that even some of the amendment's former champions now say they'll vote No.

Ray Roa, Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: Florida's Constitutional Amendments

Creative Loafing’s pick: NoEditorial

  • State economists estimate local governments would lose about $11.8 billion a year by 2031–32. Even police and firefighter unions urge a No.
  • It was rushed through a three-day special session, and a judge threw out the first ballot title and summary.
  • The Florida Realtors lobby has put millions behind it. CL calls it a distraction from property insurance, the real cost problem, and a hypocritical power grab that would leave cities begging Tallahassee for money.
  • CL notes that even some of the amendment's former champions now say they'll vote No.

Ray Roa · Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: Florida's Constitutional Amendments

Tampa Bay Times: NoEditorial

The Times calls it “a tax-cut mirage.”

Supporters, led by the Realtors, frame it as major homeowner tax relief.

The case against the progressive side’s pick: No

This guide’s research records no argument against the progressive side’s pick here.

YES raises the non-school homestead exemption to $150K/$250K, cuts the non-homestead cap to 5%, and limits what local property taxes can fund. UNF poll (Oct 12–19, n=1,471 LV, ±2.81): 50% support, short of 60%, 14% undecided.

Yes

Recommended by 6

No

Recommended by 6

The free-market Tax Foundation published a critical analysis finding a net loss for renters, without taking a formal position (Tax Foundation). The two No committees had raised a combined $537,357 through September — about 1/34th of the Yes side.

Primary
The biggest intra-right split on the ballot: the state and county GOP, DeSantis and the Realtors vs. TaxWatch, police, fire and the sheriffs.
Progressive side
Florida Democratic Party, FEA, ACLU, Equality Florida, Sierra Club, LWV and many more say NO.
Tampa Bay Times
No editorial recommendation; dueling guest columns ran Oct 14–19 link
Groups checked with nothing found

AFP, James Madison Institute, NFIB, AIF, Florida Home Builders. The Florida Chamber has an informational page but no stated position.

Hillsborough County Referendums

Simple majority required under the bill texts.

Referendum 1 — Elected (Partisan) Superintendent of Schools

Mark your ballot: Referendum 1: Providing for an Elected, Rather than an Appointed, Superintendent of Schools
EditorialWhy Creative Loafing picks No

Creative Loafing listed this pick in its guide without a write-up.

Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for

Creative Loafing’s pick: NoEditorial

Listed in Creative Loafing’s guide without a write-up.

Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: Hillsborough County Commission, School Board and referendums

Tampa Bay Times: NoEditorial

A district of about 200,000 students and a $4B budget should “prize professionalism over politics.” Hillsborough once switched to an appointed superintendent after an elected one was indicted.

The Times’ account of the case for Yes: voters get a direct say, and the superintendent is freed from the board.

The case against the progressive side’s pick: No

  • Against No, Rep. Michael Owen (sponsor): Argues parents, not the board, should decide who leads their children's schools. source

YES makes the superintendent an elected, partisan office from 2028. HB 4027 by Rep. Michael Owen (R) passed the House 86–26 and Senate 36–0.

Yes

Recommended by 1

No

Recommended by 1

Intra-right split: the county GOP opposes its own delegation's bill. Republican Stacy Hahn (as a School Board member) and Republican candidate Ken Gay also oppose it. The nonpartisan School Board passed a unanimous NO resolution; member Nadia Combs said "Republicans, Democrats and Libertarians alike" oppose it.

Progressive side
Hillsborough Democrats, the Labor Council/HCTA, PTA Council and Education Foundation all say NO.
Tampa Bay Times
Both recommend No (Oct 7) link
Groups checked with nothing found

Moms for Liberty Hillsborough, Florida Citizens Alliance, DeSantis.

Referendum 2 — Expand County Commission to 9, All Single-Member Districts

Mark your ballot: Referendum 2: Amending the County Charter to Increase Number of County Commissioners, All Elected From Single-Member Districts
EditorialWhy Creative Loafing picks No

Creative Loafing listed this pick in its guide without a write-up.

Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for

Creative Loafing’s pick: NoEditorial

Listed in Creative Loafing’s guide without a write-up.

Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: Hillsborough County Commission, School Board and referendums

Tampa Bay Times: NoEditorial

“Four out of seven becomes one out of nine.” Countywide seats can’t be gerrymandered, and smaller districts give big donors more influence.

Some voting-rights advocates favor single-member districts because they can improve minority representation.

The case against the progressive side’s pick: No

  • Against No, Rep. Michael Owen: Times op-ed (Oct 20) says expansion brings real term limits and government closer to the people. source
  • Against No, Commissioners Hagan, Miller, Wostal and Boles (R): Boles says the charter has outgrown itself; Wostal cites better accessibility and accountability. source

YES grows the commission to 9 (11 at 2.5M people), ends countywide seats, and adds "majority plus one" votes for key appointments. HB 4029 by Reps. Owen and Valdés (R).

Yes

Recommended by 4

No

Recommended by 1

The county's Charter Review Board declined to recommend expansion. Five former commissioners (Beckner, Kemp, Overman, Smith, Turanchik) wrote a Times op-ed against it; they're not identified as right-leaning.

Progressive side
Hillsborough Democrats ("partisan power grab") and Sierra Club say NO.
Tampa Bay Times
Both recommend No (Oct 7) link
Groups checked with nothing found

Florida Chamber, Tampa Bay Partnership, Greater Tampa Chamber.

Referendum 3 — Half-Cent School Capital Sales Surtax (renewal)

Mark your ballot: Referendum 3: One-Half Cent Sales Surtax for Public School Air Conditioning and Capital Improvements
EditorialWhy Creative Loafing picks Yes (renew the school sales tax)

Creative Loafing listed this pick in its guide without a write-up.

Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for

Both sides agree: For the tax

3 progressive and 1 right-leaning support entries

  • Progressive, West Central Florida Labor Council, AFL-CIO: Included the surtax on its Oct 7 list, which the teachers union (HCTA) tells members to follow. source
  • Progressive, Hillsborough County Democratic Party: Frames it as a renewal of an existing tax, not a new one, with independent oversight. source
  • Progressive, Hillsborough County Council PTA/PTSA: Runs the "Half-Penny Promise" campaign for the surtax. source
  • Right-leaning, Hillsborough County Republican Party: Listed continuing the half-cent sales surtax on its official 2026 slate card. source

Creative Loafing’s pick: Yes (renew the school sales tax)Editorial

Listed in Creative Loafing’s guide without a write-up.

Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: Hillsborough County Commission, School Board and referendums

Tampa Bay Times: For the one-half cent taxEditorial

“A smart investment.”

The Times also urges the district to trim bureaucracy and consider closing underused schools.

The case against the progressive side’s pick: For the tax

This guide’s research records no argument against the progressive side’s pick here.

FOR continues the existing half-cent school sales tax for 2029–2038 (~$121–131M/yr); it doesn't raise the 7.5% county rate.

For the tax

Recommended by 1

Against the tax

No right-leaning opposition found. Context: in 2024 the GOP-led commission cut the school district's share of the county infrastructure tax from 25% to 5% and stalled a schools tax vote (Axios).

Progressive side
Hillsborough Democrats, the Labor Council and the PTA Council say YES.
Tampa Bay Times
Both recommend Yes (Oct 7) link
Groups checked with nothing found

AFP, local taxpayer groups, No Tax for Tracks–style activists, Tampa Bay Partnership, Greater Tampa Chamber, Tampa Bay Builders.

Caveats

  • The Hillsborough GOP slate card is an image-only PDF; it was read visually from the official file and is treated as direct.
  • Law-enforcement and firefighter unions endorse in both parties. They are grouped here as public safety, not as ideological conservatives.
  • No right-leaning independent-expenditure dollar figures (NRSC, Senate Leadership Fund, NRCC, Congressional Leadership Fund, RGA) were retrieved from FEC Schedule E; their absence here is a research gap, not proof of no spending.
  • Industry breakdowns of donors (OpenSecrets / FollowTheMoney) were not retrieved. Donalds' $111M+ came mostly from large corporations per WLRN, but no itemized breakdown is shown.
  • "Nothing found" means no 2026 position turned up in searches. Coverage is thinnest for House District 64, the 2nd DCA judges and Referendum 3.
  • Florida constitutional amendments need 60% to pass. The county referendums need a simple majority under the bill texts (one June WUSF report said 60%).
Companion to the precinct 403 ballot. Florida constitutional amendments need 60% to pass. Positions reported as found; this guide makes no recommendations of its own.

Where to vote