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Research as of Oct. 24, 2026. Early voting runs through Nov. 1; Election Day is Nov. 3. Check your voter info at votehillsborough.gov

United States Senator

Federal

United States Senator

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Research as of Oct. 23, 2026

Read by a synthetic voice from this page’s research. A summary, not a recommendation.

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Florida voters are choosing a U.S. senator to finish Marco Rubio's term. Republican Ashley Moody, a former state attorney general, was appointed by Governor DeSantis in January 2025. Democrat Angie Nixon is a state representative from Jacksonville. Neil J. Gillespie, who has no party affiliation, is also on the ballot. The RealClearPolitics average has Moody ahead by about 7 points, and a University of North Florida poll taken October 12 through 19 had her up 4. In filings through October 14, Moody's campaign had raised about 14.5 million dollars. Nixon outraised her from July through September. Through October 22, outside groups had spent about 9.3 million dollars against Nixon and 3.5 million against Moody. Creative Loafing Tampa Bay's editors back Nixon, citing her primary win despite being heavily outspent. The Tampa Bay Times editorial board narrowly recommends Nixon too, while faulting both; it called her public-control proposals "anathema to traditional American capitalism." Nixon joined the Democratic Socialists of America in June, and Moody's campaign calls her a self-proclaimed socialist. Moody is endorsed by Donald Trump and conservative groups including the Florida Chamber of Commerce and the NRA. Progressive groups including the Florida AFL-CIO, Planned Parenthood and the Sierra Club back Nixon. Research as of October 23, 2026. Sources and the full picture are on this page.

Official sample ballot wording

United States Senator · Vote for one

  • Ashley MoodyRepublican
  • Angie NixonDemocratic
  • Neil J. GillespieNo Party Affiliation
Mark your ballot: United States Senator
EditorialWhy Creative Loafing picks Angie Nixon
  • Nixon won the Democratic primary decisively despite being outspent 16 to 1 by the party's preferred candidate, and CL calls her easy to get behind.
  • She was a single mother for 12 years and runs a Jacksonville bookstore and coffee shop. In six years in the Legislature she filed early-learning bills, fought cuts to public schools and limits on abortion, and was arrested protesting the gerrymandered congressional maps.
  • Her agenda, as CL reports it: extend Affordable Care Act subsidies first, lower costs, shore up Social Security and protect families from medical bankruptcy, partly by raising taxes on the very wealthy.
  • CL relays Nixon's case against Ashley Moody: Moody's role in the Hope Florida scandal, her stock trading, her vote for the "Big Beautiful Bill" and its Medicaid cuts, and her refusal to debate.

The guide lists Nixon without a write-up; these reasons are from CL's Oct. 19 story on her Ybor City rally, which recommends her.

Ray Roa (with Dave Decker), In Ybor City, Angie Nixon and Bernie Sanders rally against ‘lying, cheating, scheming, thieving Ashley Moody’ (w/photos)

Where it stands

FactFederal · U.S. Senator (Special election)

Moody +7 (RCP)

17 polls in the analysis. Research as of Oct. 24, 2026.

Lead recommendationEditorialCreative Loafing Tampa Bay, Oct. 19, 2026

Creative Loafing’s pick

Angie Nixon

Why, as they argue it (our summary of their write-up)

  • Nixon won the Democratic primary decisively despite being outspent 16 to 1 by the party's preferred candidate, and CL calls her easy to get behind.
  • She was a single mother for 12 years and runs a Jacksonville bookstore and coffee shop. In six years in the Legislature she filed early-learning bills, fought cuts to public schools and limits on abortion, and was arrested protesting the gerrymandered congressional maps.
  • Her agenda, as CL reports it: extend Affordable Care Act subsidies first, lower costs, shore up Social Security and protect families from medical bankruptcy, partly by raising taxes on the very wealthy.
  • CL relays Nixon's case against Ashley Moody: Moody's role in the Hope Florida scandal, her stock trading, her vote for the "Big Beautiful Bill" and its Medicaid cuts, and her refusal to debate.

The guide lists Nixon without a write-up; these reasons are from CL's Oct. 19 story on her Ybor City rally, which recommends her.

Ray Roa (with Dave Decker) · In Ybor City, Angie Nixon and Bernie Sanders rally against ‘lying, cheating, scheming, thieving Ashley Moody’ (w/photos) · every pick: the full guide

Creative Loafing’s reporting on this race (17)

Why this leads: The site owner's choice (Oct. 24): the recommendation that best matches the owner's values, shown first on every contest. Still an editorial: one outlet's opinion, not this site's.

The money gap

Fact

The research has a raised total for Moody but not for Nixon, so there's no ratio. Nixon outraised Moody in the third quarter.

Raised by each campaign this cycle (FEC)

  • Ashley MoodyRepublican · incumbent

    $14.5Mas of Oct 14, 2026

    Her joint fundraising committees held another $1.4M.

  • Angie NixonDemocrat

    No raised total in the research. Counting campaign accounts only, she ended September with more cash than Moody ($4.11M to $2.82M); her pre-general report wasn't filed by Oct. 22.

No figures in the research for Neil J. Gillespie (NPA).

Not counted: outside groups had spent $9.3M against Nixon and $3.5M against Moody. source 1 source 2

Figures from the money map research, compared like for like. Outside groups' spending isn't counted unless noted.

What the research holds

Counts from every page and file
Polls
17
Money-map edges1 with money
4
Network edges
2
Progressive support
30
Progressive oppose
3
Right-leaning support
11
Right-leaning oppose
2
Sources
52
People & groups
47

Tampa Bay Times

EditorialMoney map

Angie Nixon (both editors, narrowly)

The Times' case
“Her excesses are those of an insurgent, while Moody’s record shows a habit of deference to power.”
The other side
On Moody: she “squandered her time as attorney general shilling for Trump and acting as DeSantis’ legal wingman.” On Nixon: her public-control proposals are “anathema to traditional American capitalism.” Overall, “this race has centrists reaching for heartburn medication,” and neither has “a credible plan… to lead on big issues like the national debt.”
Also
The Bradenton Times also recommended Nixon.

EditorialAs recorded in each guide

Progressive guide
Recommends Nixon (Oct 16)
Right-leaning guide
Recommends Nixon (Oct 16)

Other editorial pages

Opinion columns, not endorsements

No other editorial page in the research has made a pick here.

Endorsements, both lenses

Neither lens is this site's voice

Progressive lens

LensOpen the guide

Special election

Primary notes

Nixon beat Alex Vindman 56.1%–43.9% in the Aug 18 primary despite being outspent ~16:1. Vindman's backers (DSCC, End Citizens United, VoteVets) moved to Nixon for the general. Florida AFL-CIO, Planned Parenthood, EMILYs List, MoveOn, Sierra Club, LCV and Giffords endorsed only after the primary. Bernie Sanders (Aug 20) and AOC (Sep 2) also endorsed.

Angie NixonDEM30 support · 0 oppose

SupportEndorsement

Labor
Reproductive rights
Environment & climate
Progressive & community organizing
Civil rights & civil liberties
Democratic Party & caucuses

Notes

  • Criticism from inside the Democratic Party, not from progressive groups: FDP Chair Nikki Fried reportedly pressed Nixon to distance herself from DSA (Axios); David Jolly said "to the extent she's embracing any of the DSA platform, I reject that" and disagrees with her on Israel (WLRN).
Ashley MoodyREP0 support · 3 oppose

OpposeEndorsement

Labor
Progressive & community organizing
Civil rights & civil liberties
Neil J. GillespieNPA0 support · 0 oppose

No listings found in this guide.

Conservative side, as noted in this guide

Moody: Trump, Sen. Rick Scott, NRA-PVF, Florida Chamber, Florida & National Realtors, Florida Farm Bureau, Senate Conservatives Fund, Republican Party of Florida.

Searched, nothing found

Justice Democrats, PCCC, Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, Run for Something, Swing Left, Color of Change PAC, Latino Victory Fund, Mi Familia Vota, Brady, LGBTQ+ Victory Fund, Climate Cabinet, Ruth's List, HRC. Equality Florida's state PAC can't endorse in federal races (its federal arm did).

Right-leaning lens

LensOpen the guide

Special election. UNF poll Oct 12–19: Moody 49, Nixon 45 (News4Jax)

Primary notes

Moody beat lesser-known Republicans in August with no organized right-leaning opposition.

Ashley MoodyREPIncumbent11 support · 0 oppose

SupportEndorsement

Republican Party & officials
Angie NixonDEM0 support · 2 oppose

OpposeEndorsement

Republican Party & officials

Notes

  • UNF found 25% of respondents said Republican messaging about her DSA membership made them less likely to back her; the sponsor of that messaging wasn't identified. No NRSC or Senate Leadership Fund spending figures were retrieved.
Neil J. GillespieNPA0 support · 0 oppose

No listings found in this guide.

Progressive side, as noted in this guide

Nixon: Florida AFL-CIO, Planned Parenthood, EMILYs List, Sierra Club, LCV, MoveOn, Our Revolution, Working Families Party, Giffords.

Searched, nothing found

Trump post specific to the general, NRSC/Senate Leadership Fund Schedule E, SBA Pro-Life America, Florida Right to Life, Heritage Action, AFP, Turning Point Action.

Terms

Definition

Sources

52 in the registry, official records first · All sources
Show 42 more sources

Where sources disagree

All conflicts

  • Nixon Q3 receipts

    • $7.9M
    • $7.6M

    Resolved: range $7.6–7.9M

    Same FEC filing, different readings.

Matched from the research's conflict list by contest, candidate, judge or measure name.

Where to vote